The Washington Post reported on Friday that Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman iwill replace his ailing father King Salman this year, a closer analysis of the news coming out from Riyadh shows that the young prince is not going become the king for the following three reasons:
1) Internal opposition: The biggest problem of bin Salman is the internal opposition. He took the position of Crown Prince without the consent of the Allegiance Council. He ousted Mohammed bin Nayef and practically launched a military and security coup against the Allegiance Council. Previously he established an informal successor position for the Crown Prince to keep his sick father’s power under control and to gain power more quickly.
Since 2017, it has every year continuously been reporting that Bin Salman is going to become king, and set to ousted the 85-year-old king down and take full control of the Arabian Peninsula. Opponents of bin Salman, however, carried out two major coups, the latest of which killed one of bin Salman’s beloved bodyguards, and there were numerous reports of a possible military coup in Saudi Arabia. Even to address concerns arising from internal problems Washington has sought to appoint its four-star general as US ambassador to Saudi Arabia and to reduce external and internal pressure on bin Salman.
John Abizaid has a history of the war in Granada, the Persian Gulf, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, and various reports have been published about Abizaid, he can be seen as a commander of ground forces, intelligence and military officers in US offices in Europe and a researcher on strategic issues. However, bin Salman’s internal opponents can be divided into several groups.
The first group is from the royal family, and they believe that bin Salman has neither the merit nor the power to run the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They see the outcome of Saudi Arabia’s war against Yemen, regional problems and challenges with Iran, and the defeat in the Iraqi, Lebanese and Malaysian elections as clear examples of Riyadh’s recklessness made by bin Salman.
On the other hand, according to the Council of Allegiance, the monarchy should have been between the sons of Abdul Aziz must continue, but this has not happened. The second group, however, is more opposed to bin Salman’s conflicting behaviors. They argue that bin Salman has strayed from the Saudi policy of linking to al-Wahhab, and taking reformist measures such as bin Zayed is inconsistent with Saudi policies and internal strengthening factors. And that could collapse Saudi Arabia’s main base from within.
The third group, however, opposes the suppression and the maximum pressure policy of the Saudi dynasty from the beginning of the establishment of the monarchy until today. You can add with them the citizens whose lives are practically ruined and ruining in the so-called Neom project. More than 4,000 housing units were destroyed in the project in a matter of days for Bin Salman to make his dream come true. All of these are issues that destroy any government and kingdom that do not have social acceptance.
2) International opposition: A wide range of foreign opponents are against bin Salman. Iran and the Axis of Resistance are only part of the opposition.
Bin Salman’s gross mistake and key role in the case of Jamal Khashoggi and the killing of his opponent by a clear order from the office of Crown Prince have tarnished bin Salman’s reputation and increased the concentration of human rights groups against him.
Bin Salman is practically alone in the international arena and has received a lot of criticism. So much so that Germany and even France were forced to suspend part of their arms sales to Bin Salman at times. Also, these pressure policies in London have ended to the detriment of the British cabinet, and there is a possibility that British officials will take their step back to the sale of weapons to Riyadh. Cooperation with the Zionist regime has taken away only the remaining reputation of Riyadh, and the issue of the deal of the century has become a social disgust for Muslims, especially Palestinians.
The face that Riyadh had created over the course of a century as a servant of the two holy shrines was shattered by the negotiation of the century deal, and the veil on the face of Bin Salman and the Saudi family lifted.
The war in Yemen and the disgraceful defeat by the Yemeni forces in a row is another issue that has made Riyadh’s hand more empty. The Saudi military has shown that with all the weapons and equipment it has purchased, not only does Riyadh lack a cohesive and powerful regional army, but for US investment in Riyadh as a “regional gendarme”, bin Salman has virtually no political and military mobilization power, and Washington has to intervene directly. These issues have reduced support for Riyadh around the world and raised concerns for the Al Saud.
Bin Salman’s invasion of Yemen and the unofficial occupation of Bahrain and even the political and security invasion of Qatar have, of course, created other problems for him. Bin Salman has practically sent a message to the surrounding countries that in the event of any opposition they would face the war or military aggression, they have no choice. This has reduced the support of the surrounding governments in official and unofficial assemblies for Bin Salman and can become his Achilles heel.
3) Bin Salman’s character: The analysis of Bin Salman’s character from 2015 onwards shows that he is a power-hungry, and lacking political and social cohesion. With a lot of publicity, he presented himself as the savior of Saudi Arabia and the new builder of this country, while not only he did not fulfill a single bit of his proposed proposals, but he put a lot of costs on Riyadh, and last year it was predicted that Riyadh faces a $ 50 billion budget deficit.
Bin Salman’s excessive love of personality and authoritarianism has made him an unstable figure, and those around the previous kings and the royal family members know that telling him the truth and criticizing him will mean removing him from power. Keeping flattering and inefficient figures for Riyadh has not only increased over the years, but even the slightest criticism can permanently remove powerful Saudi political figures from the country’s power and political scene.
Accordingly, Bin Salman is selfish who do not care about others. In other words, bin Salman’s mistakes are so great that the Iranian leadership’s interpretation of the “raw young man” is in fact the most accurate word to describe bin Salman. On the other hand, bin Salman’s lusts, both during his rule over Saudi cities and during his crown prince position, are shared by many politicians around the world, to the point that some considered him as one of the most sexual pervert person in the world’s current political structure.
Along with all of Bin Salman’s unique characteristics for not becoming a king, one feature that brings bin Salman farther from the kingdom the most is that no one can trust bin Salman. In fact, bin Salman, with his irrational behavior, puts all the responsibility for his actions on his appointees in order to avoid any problems.
The suspension of Ahmad al-Asiri, al-Tabiqi, Mohammed al-Hassawi, and several others in Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination, the arrest of Bader Al-Asaker, the head of his office, on unspecified charges, and dozens of other cases are part of bin Salman’s anti-trust actions that have left his character in a state of ambiguity.
With such a character, Bin Salman does not even seem to be able to remain in the position of Saudi Crown Prince, let alone becoming the King of Saudi Arabia and the center of gravity of the Saudi family in the most difficult regional and international conditions.